Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:48:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5410…dcc7 sports 648 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,596 (-10%) realized −$2,484 · open −$112
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%228W / 417L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$422est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$544
7 days+$243
14 days+$197
30 days−$1,472
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$3,138
crypto 5% +$44
other 0% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +15.3% +4.3% 37% 37% +5.9%
≤30d 234 -8.1% -16.8% 32% 31% -23.4%
≤90d 597 -7.5% -16.3% 35% 34% -19.5%
all 645 -7.9% -16.7% 35% 34% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 34% -20.5%
10% -24.7% 33% -28.1%
15% -31.9% 32% -35.0%
20% -38.6% 30% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$35 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$2,484
Unrealized−$112
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses228 / 417
Est. fees paid−$422
Open positions3
Markets (closed)645 / 648
History coverage109d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 645 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Seattle Mariners 18¢ 4¢ $50 $11 −$39 (-78%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Chicago Cubs 29¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5) Cleveland Guardians 12¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 213 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) Jun 18 $46 +$191 +413%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $53 +$78 +147%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5) Jun 17 $61 +$188 +307%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $47 +$77 +165%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 +$46 +226%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Jun 17 $40 −$39 -98%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $51 +$128 +249%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 −$28 -90%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $294 −$289 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $103 +$236 +230%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $40 +$65 +162%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $77 −$76 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $22 −$22 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $52 −$30 -57%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $48 −$48 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$40 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $68 +$83 +123%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $18 −$15 -84%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 +$46 +180%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $87 −$87 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 10 $5 −$4 -77%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) Jun 09 $3 −$2 -67%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs Global Esports (+1.5) Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs FULL SENSE (+1.5) Jun 07 $2 +$5 +237%
Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $5 +$8 +149%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 +$7 +340%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $5 +$5 +101%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $7 +$7 +107%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 06 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $7 +$6 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 18¢ $51 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $237 1h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE - Map 2 Winner SELL ROSE 100¢ $131 1h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE - Map 2 Winner BUY ROSE 36¢ $8 3h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE - Map 2 Winner BUY ROSE 40¢ $45 3h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 29¢ $54 3h
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) BUY New York Yankees 19¢ $46 5h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 21¢ $26 5h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5) SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 100¢ $250 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $124 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 37¢ $47 7h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 24¢ $61 7h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $67 7h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $42 7h
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) BUY Houston Astros 16¢ $40 9h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) BUY Miami Marlins 30¢ $20 10h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 18¢ $0 11h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 18¢ $42 11h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 34¢ $20 11h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $20 11h
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 12¢ $21 11h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 48¢ $20 11h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 100¢ $179 11h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 28¢ $51 12h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Malawi 28¢ $41 15h
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) BUY Athletics 33¢ $3 4d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 3¢ $3 4d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 34¢ $31 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 18¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 50¢ $294 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.29 · official $11.29 (match) · 1432 history records