Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:54:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x540f…92be sports 335 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,608 (-5%) realized −$1,563 · open −$45
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%168W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$221est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$716now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days+$254
14 days+$254
30 days+$591
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$1,540
other 10% −$182
politics 1% −$91
crypto 0% +$99
culture 0% +$17
finance 0% −$38
tech 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +23.0% +11.2% 64% 61% +3.9%
≤30d 74 +9.3% -1.1% 58% 57% +0.8%
≤90d 292 -4.3% -13.5% 52% 51% -13.8%
all 322 -5.3% -14.3% 52% 51% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 51% -14.7%
10% -22.5% 48% -22.8%
15% -30.0% 42% -30.3%
20% -36.9% 37% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$79 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$716
Realized−$1,563
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses168 / 154
Est. fees paid−$221
Open positions13
Markets (closed)322 / 335
History coverage93d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 322 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 55¢ 100¢ $51 $92 +$41 (+82%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $78 $82 +$3 (+4%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $74 $73 −$2 (-2%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 73¢ 100¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+37%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $76 $55 −$21 (-28%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ 52¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $50 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Paraguay 77¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score No 61¢ 60¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $51 $22 −$29 (-57%)
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Elina Svitolina 67¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $47 +$28 +59%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $52 +$18 +34%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $153 −$151 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $51 +$42 +83%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Jun 18 $74 +$76 +102%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $75 +$30 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$65 +129%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $49 +$51 +105%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$38 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $96 +$74 +76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $99 +$41 +42%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $49 +$102 +206%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $25 +$85 +344%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $50 +$28 +57%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 16 $52 −$51 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $50 +$15 +30%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 +$23 +23%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $49 +$31 +65%
Bu vs. Virtanen: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $52 −$2 -3%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 15 $53 −$52 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $49 −$48 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 15 $49 −$48 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $40 −$9 -23%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Jun 15 $47 +$4 +8%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 15 $55 +$16 +29%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 03 $99 +$39 +39%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 30 $496 +$379 +76%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $657 −$159 -24%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 27 $43 +$17 +41%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 26 $41 +$38 +93%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 26 $61 +$23 +39%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 26 $70 +$61 +86%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $74 +$57 +76%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5 May 26 $62 +$53 +86%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 25 $40 +$44 +109%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 25 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 25 $61 −$60 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 25 $45 −$44 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 25 $48 −$47 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 25 $48 −$47 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 25 $66 +$65 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $66 +$62 +93%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 25 $126 +$15 +12%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 24 $49 +$35 +70%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 24 $44 +$40 +90%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 24 $52 −$51 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 24 $39 −$39 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 77¢ $50 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Elina Svitolina 67¢ $54 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $52 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $51 12h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $51 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 13h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $77 14h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Bebop 31¢ $10 24h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Bebop 31¢ $1 24h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 61¢ $51 24h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Bebop 31¢ $36 24h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $52 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $79 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $75 28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $76 28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $76 28h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 73¢ $50 39h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 49¢ $14 41h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 49¢ $4 43h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 47h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 55¢ $16 47h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 49¢ $17 47h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 55¢ $35 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 54¢ $51 2d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 49¢ $38 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $75 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $52 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 32¢ $49 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 48¢ $49 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $716.50 · official $716.50 (match) · 692 history records