Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:10:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x540f…17c1
crypto · 99 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$42 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$43 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses53 / 44
Open positions2
Markets (closed)97 / 99
History coverage100d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 2 History 97 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Waymo operate in 12 or more cities on June 30 2026? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+415%)
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? No 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 5, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 13 $3 −$1 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 13 $8 $0 -5%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 13 $7 −$4 -59%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Mar 09 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 09 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 09 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 09 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 09 $3 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 09 $2 $0 -4%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 09 $5 +$3 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 09 $4 −$3 -64%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 09 $2 −$1 -90%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 09 $1 +$2 +165%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 09 $7 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 09 $3 +$1 +40%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 08 $4 +$2 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 08 $2 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 08 $2 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 08 $2 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 08 $2 +$1 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 08 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 08 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 08 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 08 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 08 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 08 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 08 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 08 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 08 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 08 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 08 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 08 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 08 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 08 $1 +$1 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$41
weather 1% −$2
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 51m
Will Waymo operate in 12 or more cities on June 30 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 25h
Will Waymo operate in 12 or more cities on June 30 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 36h
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? BUY No 1¢ $1 37h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $3 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $3 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $3 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 96d
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 96d
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 96d
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 96d
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 96d
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 96d
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $4 96d
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 96d
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 96d
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 96d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 97 -20.1% -27.7% 55% 31% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 31% -26.3%
10% -34.6% 22% -33.3%
15% -40.9% 13% -39.8%
20% -46.7% 10% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.49 · official $2.49 (match) · 256 history records