Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:31:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.0
score
54 0x540e…1d82 crypto 479 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this crypto specialist
Total PnL +$6,287 (+23%) realized +$6,287 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate87%417W / 62L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$64
14 days+$64
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6,271
other 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 +12.5% +1.8% 76% 21% -7.4%
≤30d 169 +17.9% +6.6% 77% 20% -9.7%
≤90d 318 +40.3% +26.9% 88% 37% +13.3%
all 479 +39.5% +26.2% 87% 50% +11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.2% 50% +11.4%
10% +14.1% 39% +0.8%
15% +3.1% 29% -9.0%
20% -7.0% 24% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$22 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.65 per $1 lost it wins $5.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,287
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses417 / 62
Open positions0
Markets (closed)479 / 479
History coverage120d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 479 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $38 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$29 +1462%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $24 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $34 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $33 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $34 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $42 −$9 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $61 −$23 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $38 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $40 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 21 $33 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $38 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $33 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$10 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $39 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$20 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $28 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $27 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $38 −$8 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $28 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $27 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $22 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $23 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$18 +324%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $22 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $24 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $27 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $17 +$8 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $29 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $23 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $28 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $31 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $31 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $28 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $33 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $7 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $33 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $27 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $39 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $38 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $33 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $27 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1420 history records