Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:31:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
54 0x540d…c8f9 sports 399 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$63,278 (+8%) realized +$63,278 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate66%263W / 136L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$1,872per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Fees−$12,464est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,469
7 days+$1,469
14 days+$960
30 days+$10,449
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$54,707
crypto 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -6.7% -15.6% 56% 38% -5.0%
≤30d 69 +3.7% -6.2% 64% 45% -4.8%
≤90d 339 +5.7% -4.4% 65% 44% -2.8%
all 399 +10.0% -0.5% 66% 47% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.5% 47% -2.3%
10% -10.0% 31% -11.7%
15% ← realistic here -18.7% 23% -20.2%
20% -26.7% 19% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$2,530) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$400 vs −$371 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$63,278
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses263 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$12,464
Open positions0
Markets (closed)399 / 399
History coverage126d
Avg bet$1,872
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 399 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $5,021 +$191 +4%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $1,289 −$1,215 -94%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $4,917 +$173 +4%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $7 $0 -3%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $2,035 −$1,143 -56%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $742 −$128 -17%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $1,734 +$86 +5%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $417 −$8 -2%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $110 −$100 -90%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $188 −$76 -40%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $5,525 +$1,445 +26%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $2,036 +$1,043 +51%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $151 +$22 +15%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $1,453 +$214 +15%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $2,473 +$353 +14%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $980 +$612 +62%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $363 −$358 -99%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $219 −$151 -69%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +13%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2,238 −$2,232 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $5,874 +$121 +2%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $4,258 +$437 +10%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2,316 −$157 -7%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $716 +$1,117 +156%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $408 +$311 +76%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $193 +$215 +112%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $4,074 −$1,698 -42%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $16,206 −$7,062 -44%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $13,188 +$412 +3%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $15,728 +$1,011 +6%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $398 −$52 -13%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $6,234 +$1,346 +22%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $11,096 +$202 +2%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $3,302 +$2,723 +82%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1,110 −$776 -70%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $7,114 +$1,022 +14%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $2,098 −$1,999 -95%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $2,655 +$2,403 +90%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $1,947 +$865 +44%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $1,474 +$321 +22%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $1,052 +$421 +40%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $4,108 −$713 -17%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 30 $1,994 +$60 +3%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 30 $7,218 −$1,269 -18%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $2,960 −$1,236 -42%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 30 $2,266 −$1,573 -69%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $5,254 +$2,994 +57%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $1,020 −$127 -12%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $3,286 +$775 +24%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $5,466 +$1,333 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner SELL OG 100¢ $2,008 34m
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY OG 99¢ $1,991 39m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Rune Eaters 2¢ $73 55m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 40¢ $616 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 40¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 40¢ $59 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 40¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 40¢ $273 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 40¢ $340 1h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner SELL OG 83¢ $3,204 1h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY OG 78¢ $3,025 1h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY OG 63¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner SELL Rune Eaters 100¢ $3,005 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL Rune Eaters 66¢ $7 2h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 70¢ $209 2h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 70¢ $117 2h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 70¢ $700 2h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 70¢ $569 2h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 70¢ $362 2h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 70¢ $17 2h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 67¢ $3 2h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 67¢ $3 2h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 61¢ $14 2h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 60¢ $101 2h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner SELL Rune Eaters 52¢ $2,085 2h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 70¢ $45 2h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 70¢ $23 2h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 70¢ $77 2h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 70¢ $503 2h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 70¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2862 history records