Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:26:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x540d…235b
tech · 35 markets active 329d ago
0.0score
+$23,402 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$23,402 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$129
Realized+$23,402
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses26 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage174d
Avg bet$31,864
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 0 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Waymo surpass Uber SF market share in 2025? No 77¢ 100¢ $100 $129 +$29 (+29%)
Doge ETF approved in 2025? No 47¢ 0¢ $3,663 $0 −$3,663 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 31 $140,375 +$9,022 +6%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jul 07 $1,211 −$1,211 -100%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Jul 07 $200 +$30 +15%
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? Jul 07 $307 +$102 +33%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jul 07 $2,873 +$179 +6%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 18 $133,161 +$2,491 +2%
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by July 31? May 14 $162 −$162 -100%
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31? May 14 $25,847 +$8,885 +34%
US-China trade deal before June? May 13 $71,934 −$59,327 -82%
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $128,838 +$10,982 +8%
Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1? May 02 $971 +$27 +3%
X allowed to operate in China before May? May 01 $4,821 +$131 +3%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 01 $6,662 +$122 +2%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 01 $20,058 +$19,099 +95%
US recession in 2025? Apr 25 $52,161 −$8,608 -16%
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? Apr 18 $1,206 −$1,206 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Apr 12 $257 +$2 +1%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? Apr 07 $2,887 +$2,107 +73%
Wisconsin Supreme Court election: Susan Crawford vs. Brad Schimel Apr 02 $41,041 +$5,596 +14%
TikTok sale announced before April? Apr 01 $42,815 +$33,220 +78%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $170,536 +$5,105 +3%
US national Solana reserve in 2025? Mar 02 $1,665 −$171 -10%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 02 $480 −$480 -100%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Fe Mar 02 $1,006 +$38 +4%
DeepSeek better than all OpenAI models before March? Mar 02 $4,614 +$536 +12%
Will Elon Musk visit Stargate Texas site before March? Mar 02 $7,268 +$195 +3%
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March? Feb 25 $2,808 +$2,052 +73%
TikTok on App Store again before March? Feb 14 $4,240 −$4,120 -97%
Doge ETF approved in 2025? Feb 08 $3,663 −$3,663 -100%
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February? Feb 04 $75,956 +$329 +0%
TikTok on App Store again before February? Feb 01 $55,000 +$68 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Feb 01 $509 +$1 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? Jan 30 $109,471 +$1,982 +2%
Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin before February? Jan 28 $150 +$20 +14%
Will Waymo surpass Uber SF market share in 2025? Jan 27 $100 +$29 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 66% +$20,974
tech 12% +$49,595
politics 10% +$7,967
other 8% −$62,635
sports 4% +$5,596
crypto 0% +$1,904
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 96¢ $823 329d
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 95¢ $210 340d
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 95¢ $3,690 340d
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 93¢ $111 358d
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 94¢ $135,541 358d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $2,129 370d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,424 370d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $147 370d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $246 370d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $147 370d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $4,910 370d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $275 370d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 370d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $393 370d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $55 370d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 370d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,214 370d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 370d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $2,141 370d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $190 370d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $807 370d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $295 370d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $7,365 370d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $91 370d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $10,254 370d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $202 370d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $190 370d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $7,365 370d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $806 370d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $295 370d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 35 -5.5% -14.5% 74% 31% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 31% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 20% -16.5%
15% -30.2% 11% -24.5%
20% -37.0% 11% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.49 · official $129.49 (match) · 1014 history records