Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:59:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
54 0x540c…a8d0 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$450 (+93%) realized +$493 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +132% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +101% what you keep after slip
Net edge+101%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$404
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+109.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +131.6% +109.5% 100% 100% +147.9%
≤30d 2 +131.6% +109.5% 100% 100% +147.9%
≤90d 2 +131.6% +109.5% 100% 100% +147.9%
all 2 +131.6% +109.5% 100% 100% +147.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +109.5% 100% +147.9%
10% +89.5% 100% +124.1%
15% +71.1% 100% +102.5%
20% +54.4% 100% +82.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +174% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +132% · $-wt +174% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$224 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized+$493
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)2 / 9
History coverage12d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? No 34¢ 30¢ $60 $52 −$8 (-13%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $45 $41 −$4 (-10%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes 7¢ 12¢ $16 $28 +$12 (+74%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $40 $28 −$12 (-30%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+10%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Anthropic CEO arrested? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $35 $1 −$33 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 27 $206 +$416 +202%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 27 $51 +$31 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d BUY Yes 3¢ $8 1h
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d BUY Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 63¢ $310 1h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL No 86¢ $82 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 63¢ $312 1h
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d BUY Yes 2¢ $0 33h
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d BUY Yes 2¢ $0 33h
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d BUY Yes 2¢ $0 33h
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close o BUY Yes 4¢ $22 5d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d BUY Yes 2¢ $3 11d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d BUY Yes 2¢ $1 11d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close o BUY Yes 4¢ $3 11d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Anthropic CEO arrested? BUY Yes 4¢ $35 11d
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 11d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close o BUY Yes 4¢ $16 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.12 · official $176.12 (match) · 39 history records