Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x540a…2124 crypto 629 markets active 6d ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$108 (-0%) realized −$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate85%535W / 94L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$165
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 75% 62% -17.8%
≤30d 20 -16.5% -24.4% 60% 50% -21.1%
≤90d 358 -0.5% -9.9% 87% 36% -10.4%
all 629 -1.1% -10.5% 85% 32% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 32% -10.2%
10% -19.1% 10% -18.8%
15% -26.9% 4% -26.6%
20% -34.1% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$19 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses535 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)629 / 629
History coverage147d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 629 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$27 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet May 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 25 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 25 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 25 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 25 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 25 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 25 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 25 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Lilli Tagger vs Xinyu Wang May 24 $5 +$2 +33%
Bengaluru 3: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Alastair Gray May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 15 $22 −$22 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 15 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 11 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 11 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 11 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 09 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 09 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 09 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 09 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 09 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 09 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 09 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 09 $7 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 09 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 05 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 05 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 05 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 04 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 04 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 04 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 04 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 04 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 04 $20 −$11 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 03 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 03 $15 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $17 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 38¢ $2 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $6 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $7 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 24d
Roland Garros WTA: Lilli Tagger vs Xinyu Wang SELL Xinyu Wang 55¢ $7 24d
Roland Garros WTA: Lilli Tagger vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 40¢ $5 24d
Bengaluru 3: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Alastair Gray BUY Alastair Gray 90¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $22 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1819 history records