Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:41:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
54 0x540a…ce41 crypto 192 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$286 (+0%) realized +$288 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%184W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,364per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,976now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$6
14 days+$19
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$275
other 1% +$1
tech 1% +$2
politics 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 23 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 78 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 190 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,860) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×178.2 per $1 lost it wins $178.2
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$1,976
Realized+$288
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses184 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)190 / 192
History coverage238d
Avg bet$1,364
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,143 $1,143 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $835 $833 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 24? Jun 24 $1,976 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 23? Jun 23 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,849 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,972 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,971 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,969 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1,967 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,963 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,961 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.80 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,877 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on June 10? Jun 10 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,956 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 1-7? Jun 08 $1,954 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,952 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,950 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,948 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,947 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,945 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,943 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 31? Jun 01 $1,941 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? May 29 $1,939 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? May 27 $1,937 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 26? May 26 $1,936 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? May 25 $1,930 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 23? May 23 $1,927 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 22? May 22 $1,925 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $70,000 on May 20? May 20 $1,412 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 20? May 20 $511 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 19 $1,921 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 18? May 18 $1,920 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90,000 on May 17? May 17 $433 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on May 17? May 17 $1,485 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 15? May 15 $1,402 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 15? May 15 $514 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 14? May 14 $1,914 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 13? May 13 $1,912 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 11? May 11 $773 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 11? May 11 $1,138 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 10? May 10 $1,909 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 9? May 09 $1,907 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 8? May 08 $1,905 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 7? May 07 $1,903 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on May 5? May 06 $1,399 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 5? May 05 $502 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? May 04 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.00 on May 3? May 03 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 3? May 03 $579 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on May 3? May 03 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on May 3? May 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on May 3? May 03 $200 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $544 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $599 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $735 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $1,976 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1,849 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $118 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $7 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1,972 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1,971 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,969 9d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $1,967 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1,730 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $233 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,961 13d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $82 14d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.80 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $1,877 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,956 16d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $1,954 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $1,952 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $1,950 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $1,948 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $1,947 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $1,945 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $1,943 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $1,941 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $1,939 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,937 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $1,936 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $1,930 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,975.68 · official $1,976.52 (match) · 405 history records