Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:36:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5408…590f crypto 237 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$295 (-10%) realized −$298 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%92W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$24
world 27% −$60
sports 21% −$194
other 7% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -83.2% -84.8% 12% 12% -24.5%
≤30d 8 -83.2% -84.8% 12% 12% -24.5%
≤90d 8 -83.2% -84.8% 12% 12% -24.5%
all 234 -2.8% -12.0% 39% 38% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 38% -20.2%
10% -20.4% 38% -27.8%
15% -28.1% 37% -34.8%
20% -35.2% 37% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$298
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses92 / 142
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)234 / 237
History coverage145d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 42¢ 42¢ $48 $48 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 80¢ 90¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+13%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $28 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 128 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $81 +$28 +35%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)? Feb 18 $7 −$5 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Feb 16 $1 +$4 +270%
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? Feb 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Girona FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Feb 15 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Feb 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Feb 15 $49 −$39 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Feb 15 $26 +$23 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Feb 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Feb 15 $22 +$20 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Feb 15 $13 +$9 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Feb 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Feb 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Feb 15 $30 +$28 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Feb 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Feb 15 $5 +$6 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Feb 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Feb 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Feb 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Feb 15 $13 +$17 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Feb 15 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Feb 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Feb 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Feb 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Feb 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Feb 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Feb 15 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Feb 15 $27 −$26 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Feb 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Feb 15 $15 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Feb 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Feb 15 $14 −$13 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Feb 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Feb 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Feb 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Feb 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Feb 15 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Feb 15 $15 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Feb 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Feb 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Feb 15 $23 +$21 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Feb 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Feb 15 $26 +$22 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $49 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $28 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 34h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 34h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 34h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 39¢ $17 2d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $109 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $81 5d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 118d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 120d
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 120d
Will Girona FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $10 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $13 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $16 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $22 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $13 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $50 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $25 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.08 · official $109.45 (match) · 762 history records