Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:06:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
54 0x5407…5bbd sports 1675 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$536 (+4%) realized +$553 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%669W / 978L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day59.8pace
Fees−$235est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$319now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$257
7 days+$280
14 days+$273
30 days+$556
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$463
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 442 +0.2% -9.3% 40% 38% -5.7%
≤30d 1632 +3.6% -6.2% 41% 39% -5.5%
≤90d 1647 +3.6% -6.2% 41% 39% -5.6%
all 1647 +3.6% -6.2% 41% 39% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 39% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.2% 38% -14.6%
15% -23.4% 36% -22.9%
20% -30.9% 35% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early 6.510069109950377% → late 0.7537364530698155% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$319
Realized+$553
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses669 / 978
Est. fees paid−$235
Open positions28
Markets (closed)1647 / 1675
History coverage31d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day59.8
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 1647 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Over 44¢ 50¢ $29 $33 +$4 (+14%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 34¢ 82¢ $14 $33 +$19 (+143%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Under 34¢ 73¢ $14 $29 +$16 (+115%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Under 42¢ 68¢ $17 $28 +$11 (+63%)
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) San Francisco Giants 28¢ 69¢ $11 $28 +$17 (+148%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Under 38¢ 62¢ $15 $25 +$10 (+63%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Atlanta Braves 30¢ 55¢ $12 $23 +$10 (+83%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Tampa Bay Rays 25¢ 34¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+36%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Under 35¢ 34¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Over 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Over 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Detroit Tigers 36¢ 25¢ $13 $9 −$4 (-31%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 40¢ 22¢ $16 $9 −$7 (-46%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 44¢ 18¢ $19 $8 −$12 (-60%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Over 34¢ 19¢ $14 $8 −$6 (-44%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Over 32¢ 10¢ $25 $8 −$18 (-70%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 34¢ 26¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-24%)
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Chicago Cubs 26¢ 16¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 60¢ 94¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+57%)
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Los Angeles Angels 34¢ 18¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-46%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Over 35¢ 47¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+34%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 27¢ 6¢ $11 $2 −$9 (-80%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Chicago Cubs 30¢ 6¢ $12 $2 −$10 (-82%)
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Minnesota Twins 35¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-99%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Toronto Blue Jays 29¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$11 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) Jun 14 $22 +$27 +121%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $28 +$12 +44%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 14 $19 +$21 +114%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $14 +$23 +172%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 14 $12 +$28 +238%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 14 $11 +$29 +262%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $16 +$24 +152%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) Jun 14 $17 +$23 +135%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $11 +$30 +262%
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 14 $32 +$88 +276%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $35 +$5 +13%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $17 +$23 +129%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) Jun 14 $11 +$31 +283%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 14 $13 +$27 +216%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $33 +$7 +20%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $11 −$10 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $17 +$24 +146%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $27 +$14 +52%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 14 $24 +$56 +238%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $33 +$12 +36%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $56 −$55 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) Jun 14 $24 −$23 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $43 +$1 +3%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $12 +$23 +196%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 14 $53 +$70 +133%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $44 −$3 -8%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $11 +$29 +250%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 14 $21 −$8 -37%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 14 $22 +$19 +90%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 14 $21 +$21 +101%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 14 $19 +$21 +114%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 14 $22 +$18 +83%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 25¢ $13 20m
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 26¢ $11 22m
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 25¢ $11 22m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 34¢ $9 31m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 35¢ $14 31m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 42¢ $17 36m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 39¢ $16 45m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 36¢ $15 47m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 25¢ $10 53m
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) BUY San Diego Padres 26¢ $11 58m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 26¢ $11 1h
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 44¢ $22 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 44¢ $20 1h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 42¢ $17 1h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 33¢ $10 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 41¢ $17 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 36¢ $15 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 40¢ $17 1h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 30¢ $12 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 25¢ $10 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 26¢ $11 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 33¢ $13 2h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 34¢ $14 2h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 38¢ $15 2h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 32¢ $13 2h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 31¢ $13 2h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 38¢ $15 2h
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 35¢ $14 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 44¢ $18 2h
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 26¢ $11 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $319.06 · official $319.07 (match) · 3500 history records