Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:12:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5407…2df6 other 260 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$86 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 247L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$20
14 days−$27
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$39
sports 21% −$22
culture 9% −$8
politics 7% −$7
world 6% −$8
economics 5% −$8
crypto 4% −$3
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 259 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)259 / 260
History coverage136d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 99¢ 99¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $555 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $479 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $403 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $210 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $113 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $316 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $185 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $160 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $422 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $138 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $272 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $270 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $283 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $587 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $249 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $262 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $168 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $341 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $751 −$2 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $202 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $173 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $204 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $265 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $118 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $707 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $155 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $292 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $554 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $156 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $130 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $129 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $755 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $199 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $476 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 04 $167 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $52 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 5h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 7h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 8h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 9h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 12h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 13h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 17h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 18h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $52 21h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 22h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 26h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 28h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 29h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 31h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 33h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 34h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 36h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 37h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 39h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $53 41h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 42h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 44h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $53 45h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 46h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.12 · official $52.12 (match) · 1442 history records