Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:34:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
54 0x5406…9815 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$331 (+17%) realized +$330 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$165
sports 34% −$492
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -12.0% -20.4% 42% 42% -25.1%
≤30d 12 -12.0% -20.4% 42% 42% -25.1%
≤90d 12 -12.0% -20.4% 42% 42% -25.1%
all 12 -12.0% -20.4% 42% 42% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 42% -25.1%
10% -28.0% 42% -32.3%
15% -35.0% 42% -38.8%
20% -41.3% 0% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$84 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$330
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage6d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $475 −$450 -95%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $514 −$21 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $388 +$139 +36%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $106 −$16 -15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $191 +$81 +42%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $53 −$6 -12%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $67 −$66 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $42 +$21 +50%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 −$5 -25%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $21 +$10 +46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$8 +38%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $475 56m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $493 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $514 3h
Will Marco Rubio attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $527 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $89 6h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $90 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $194 9h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $106 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $272 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $46 11h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $47 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $40 11h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $53 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $105 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $105 12h
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic SELL Nuno Borges 1¢ $1 4d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 83¢ $67 5d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire SELL Las Vegas Aces 100¢ $63 5d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire BUY Las Vegas Aces 61¢ $42 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 96¢ $31 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $21 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $13 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $21 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.37 · official $13.37 (match) · 28 history records