Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:09:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5405…4a0e other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate39%19W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$6
other 39% +$1
politics 12% +$1
finance 4% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 2% −$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.1% -11.4% 22% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 10 -1.9% -11.3% 20% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 18 -1.3% -10.7% 22% 6% -10.6%
all 49 -4.4% -13.5% 39% 2% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 2% -10.4%
10% -21.7% 0% -19.0%
15% -29.3% 0% -26.8%
20% -36.2% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses19 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage472d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $54 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $55 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $21 +$1 +4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $34 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $22 −$4 -19%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $67 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 21 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $46 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $3 $0 +14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $41 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 19 $28 −$2 -7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $1 $0 -7%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 19 $11 $0 -1%
Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes in the first round of the Po May 12 $8 $0 +2%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 10 $1 $0 -11%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in April? May 10 $2 $0 -3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 10 $8 $0 +2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $11 $0 +1%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Left be part of the next German government? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Apr 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 28 - April 4? Mar 31 $15 $0 +2%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Mar 31 $14 +$1 +4%
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged before April? Mar 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump post less than 80 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $15 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 14-21? Mar 18 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $14 $0 +3%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 4-10? Mar 12 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $37 19h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $37 21h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 55¢ $6 35h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 55¢ $32 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $37 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $18 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $18 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $5 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $36 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $41 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $41 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $41 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 27¢ $22 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $18 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $19 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $17 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $8 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $25 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $4 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $10 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $19 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.16 · official $37.16 (match) · 145 history records