Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:30:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5400…8a89 crypto 239 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,665 (+16%) realized +$1,665 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%25W / 213L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$125est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$139
7 days−$1,023
14 days−$1,085
30 days+$1,090
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% +$1,484
sports 25% +$412
other 11% −$718
weather 1% −$82
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -36.3% -42.4% 8% 8% -42.3%
≤30d 238 -27.1% -34.0% 11% 11% -33.7%
≤90d 238 -27.1% -34.0% 11% 11% -33.7%
all 238 -27.1% -34.0% 11% 11% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.0% 11% -33.7%
10% ← realistic here -40.3% 10% -40.0%
15% -46.1% 9% -45.8%
20% -51.4% 9% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$372 vs −$39 · ×9.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1,665
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses25 / 213
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions1
Markets (closed)238 / 239
History coverage21d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Seattle Storm win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 160 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 28 $144 −$140 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $144 −$140 -97%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky Jun 28 $110 −$107 -97%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $51 −$50 -97%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 −$50 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 28 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 28 $149 −$149 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 28 $49 −$49 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 28 $148 −$148 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $105 −$105 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm Jun 28 $31 −$30 -97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 28 $5 +$26 +557%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 27 $12 −$12 -97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 27 $49 +$914 +1849%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $103 +$216 +210%
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 27 $11 −$11 -99%
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm Jun 26 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $98 −$95 -97%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $103 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$96 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $164 −$164 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 21 $350 −$108 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 6¢ $46 36m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 9¢ $98 53m
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 12¢ $144 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 4¢ $103 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 1¢ $7 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 1¢ $0 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 1¢ $0 1h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 4¢ $51 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 0¢ $0 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 0¢ $0 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 19h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 0¢ $10 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 4¢ $40 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 4¢ $64 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 4¢ $1 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 4¢ $0 20h
Will Seattle Storm win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Atlanta Dream 1¢ $31 20h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 3¢ $50 20h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 1¢ $21 20h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Minnesota Twins 6¢ $31 21h
Will Seattle Storm win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 21h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 1¢ $5 21h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 0¢ $5 43h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 1¢ $12 43h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Colorado Rockies 81¢ $807 44h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Colorado Rockies 17¢ $156 44h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 1¢ $15 44h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 16¢ $318 45h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 5¢ $103 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.