Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:21:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
54 0x5400…df5e other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 751d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$53 (-13%) realized −$42 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$8
sports 30% −$59
world 8% +$2
crypto 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -40.1% -45.8% 25% 25% -8.5%
≤30d 4 -40.1% -45.8% 25% 25% -8.5%
≤90d 4 -40.1% -45.8% 25% 25% -8.5%
all 12 -26.4% -33.4% 50% 25% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.4% 25% -28.0%
10% -39.8% 8% -34.9%
15% -45.6% 8% -41.2%
20% -50.9% 0% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

751d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized−$42
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage751d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 34¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$2 -8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 06 $10 $0 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 05 $10 $0 +4%
Will England win the 2024 Euros? Mar 03 $19 −$19 -100%
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 Jul 19 $19 +$3 +15%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Dec 22 $11 +$1 +14%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? Dec 22 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Dortmund win the 2023-24 Champions League? Jun 02 $40 −$40 -100%
Real Madrid vs. Dortmund: Champions League Final Jun 01 $40 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 16h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 24¢ $19 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $10 108d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $10 109d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? SELL No 100¢ $10 109d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? BUY No 96¢ $10 111d
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 SELL Usyk 100¢ $22 338d
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 BUY Usyk 87¢ $19 338d
Ethereum all time high in 2024? SELL No 98¢ $12 547d
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? SELL No 97¢ $12 547d
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? BUY No 91¢ $11 580d
Ethereum all time high in 2024? BUY No 86¢ $11 580d
Will England win the 2024 Euros? BUY Yes 23¢ $19 746d
Will Dortmund win the 2023-24 Champions League? BUY Yes 29¢ $40 751d
Real Madrid vs. Dortmund: Champions League Final SELL Dortmund 26¢ $40 751d
Real Madrid vs. Dortmund: Champions League Final BUY Dortmund 26¢ $40 751d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.51 · official $138.52 (match) · 26 history records