Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:21:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
54 0x5400…d00d world 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate64%14W / 8L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$1
other 23% $0
crypto 10% $0
tech 5% $0
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 10 +2.0% -7.8% 50% 10% -9.2%
≤90d 10 +2.0% -7.8% 50% 10% -9.2%
all 22 +1.6% -8.1% 64% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 5% -9.2%
10% -16.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -24.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.88 per $1 lost it wins $3.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses14 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage447d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $117 +$1 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $27 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $44 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 +11%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Dec 23 $2 $0 +4%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in March? Apr 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? Apr 07 $22 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $22 $0 -1%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Apr 05 $22 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 03 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $45 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $45 2h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $25 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $19 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $35 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $5 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $4 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $1 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $39 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $39 19h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $27 28h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $27 29h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 17d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $2 17d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $2 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $22 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $19 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $31 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $10 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $3 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $45 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $44 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records