Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x53fe…5f0b
other · 64 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$77 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$77 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$26
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses38 / 3
Open positions23
Markets (closed)41 / 64
History coverage139d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%
Chart Positions 23 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $23 +$4 +17%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $20 +$3 +17%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 02 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of February? Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,500 on the final trading day of February Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,500 on the final trading day of February Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February? Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of February Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of February Feb 28 $2 $0 +0%
Spread: Pelicans (-6.5) Feb 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026? Feb 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 27 $1 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: WHITEBIRD vs CSDIILIT (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Gr Feb 27 $105 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 18 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Spread: Magic (-9.5) Feb 18 $32 +$28 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 68% −$87
politics 16% +$10
other 11% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 2% $0
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 56m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 56m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 56m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $1 56m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 57m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 57m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 57m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 57m
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 59m
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 59m
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 59m
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 59m
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 59m
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-Jun BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $2 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +16.7% +5.6% 100% 100% +5.6%
≤30d 1 +16.7% +5.6% 100% 100% +5.6%
≤90d 9 +6.0% -4.1% 100% 33% +4.8%
all 41 -1.2% -10.6% 93% 10% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 10% -29.8%
10% -19.1% 2% -36.5%
15% -27.0% 2% -42.6%
20% -34.1% 2% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.47 · official $26.48 (match) · 233 history records