Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:52:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
53 0x53fa…3bf6 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$51 (-2%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +114% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +86% what you keep after slip
Net edge+86%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%9W / 20L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$423
7 days+$522
14 days+$420
30 days+$420
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$15
sports 20% +$373
crypto 3% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+93.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +124.3% +102.9% 31% 31% -7.5%
≤30d 29 +113.9% +93.5% 31% 31% -11.8%
≤90d 29 +113.9% +93.5% 31% 31% -11.8%
all 29 +113.9% +93.5% 31% 31% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +93.5% 31% -11.8%
10% +75.0% 31% -20.2%
15% +58.1% 31% -27.9%
20% +42.6% 24% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +114% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +110% → late +117% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$186 vs −$63 · ×2.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses9 / 20
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage8d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+24%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $22 −$2 (-9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $76 +$502 +662%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $25 −$4 -16%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 −$49 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $210 −$207 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $200 +$251 +125%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 $0 -14%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $157 +$78 +50%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $258 −$255 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $25 +$197 +779%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $35 −$8 -22%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $276 +$287 +104%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $49 +$34 +70%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 −$69 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$98 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $296 +$161 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$96 +48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $124 −$121 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $25 +$69 +272%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $578 51m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 27¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 32¢ $25 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $25 7h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 7h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 53¢ $50 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 51¢ $100 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 19h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $50 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $451 20h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 21h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $200 24h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $25 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $235 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $157 44h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $50 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $50 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $98 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $109 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $25 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $25 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $221 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.07 · official $74.07 · 60 history records