Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:40:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53f9…80b7 crypto 774 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$212 (+1%) realized +$112 · open +$142
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate62%463W / 289L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$699now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$114
7 days−$119
14 days−$238
30 days−$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$351
crypto 25% −$96
politics 11% +$45
other 7% −$61
sports 5% +$22
tech 0% −$6
finance 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -5.0% -14.1% 48% 24% -14.4%
≤30d 99 -5.6% -14.6% 52% 23% -14.0%
≤90d 282 -0.8% -10.2% 49% 20% -11.1%
all 752 -2.1% -11.4% 62% 35% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 35% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 18% -19.3%
15% -27.6% 9% -27.1%
20% -34.7% 8% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$699
Realized+$112
Unrealized+$142
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses463 / 289
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions22
Markets (closed)752 / 774
History coverage106d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 752 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 64¢ 92¢ $192 $274 +$83 (+43%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 60¢ 80¢ $145 $194 +$49 (+34%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $116 $119 +$2 (+2%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 25¢ $9 $18 +$8 (+89%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 88¢ 86¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 97¢ 96¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-1%)
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? No 74¢ 74¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? No 84¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 88¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 59¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 87¢ 83¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 38¢ 39¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 81¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Yes 94¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 89¢ 96¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? No 86¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 35¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-81%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Fakers 78¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $203 −$18 -9%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $653 +$7 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $62 +$30 +49%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $374 −$152 -41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $367 +$17 +5%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -66%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -7%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -18%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -53%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -22%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $61 $0 +1%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $5 $0 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 09 $5 $0 -1%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $81 +$16 +20%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -16%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $5 +$1 +29%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $5 $0 +8%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $5 −$2 -32%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$3 +66%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $5 $0 +6%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -30%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $34 8m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 57m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $16 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 74¢ $15 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $32 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 74¢ $7 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 72¢ $17 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $69 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 74¢ $12 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $11 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 90¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $18 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 79¢ $13 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 68¢ $5 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $23 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $3 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 88¢ $12 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $47 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $0 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 67¢ $5 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 67¢ $8 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 67¢ $5 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL Yes 98¢ $7 3h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $5 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 79¢ $12 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $5 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 79¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $699.46 · official $699.42 (match) · 3500 history records