Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:38:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53f8…f76e other 176 markets active 2h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$561 (-3%) realized −$470 · open −$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate16%28W / 143L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$132est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days−$234
14 days−$234
30 days−$302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% −$125
crypto 27% −$34
other 25% −$323
world 7% −$34
politics 5% −$126
tech 2% −$23
finance 1% −$5
economics 0% −$2
culture 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -8.6% -17.3% 6% 1% -15.7%
≤30d 96 -11.1% -19.6% 5% 1% -16.5%
≤90d 144 -13.0% -21.3% 7% 1% -14.7%
all 171 -9.9% -18.5% 16% 4% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 4% -12.0%
10% -26.3% 3% -20.5%
15% -33.4% 2% -28.1%
20% -39.9% 2% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized−$470
Unrealized−$91
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses28 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$132
Open positions5
Markets (closed)171 / 176
History coverage450d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? No 49¢ 32¢ $98 $65 −$33 (-34%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 50¢ 32¢ $100 $64 −$36 (-36%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? No 69¢ 60¢ $34 $30 −$4 (-12%)
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 44¢ 38¢ $22 $19 −$3 (-14%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 50¢ 1¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 20 $64 $0 +0%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $28 −$1 -3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $245 −$21 -9%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $130 −$1 -1%
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ? Jun 20 $38 −$14 -36%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? Jun 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $39 $0 +1%
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $56 −$2 -3%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by les Jun 19 $9 −$4 -47%
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $22 −$4 -18%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? Jun 19 $12 −$1 -7%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 19 $100 −$3 -3%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 19 $81 −$4 -4%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 19 $47 +$1 +2%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 19 $91 −$14 -16%
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? Jun 19 $52 −$2 -3%
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen Jun 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $20 −$1 -6%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 18 $78 −$4 -5%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 18 $53 −$1 -3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 18 $34 −$2 -5%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on Jun 18 $15 −$13 -83%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 18 $40 $0 -1%
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Jun 18 $52 −$7 -13%
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? Jun 18 $23 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $112 −$4 -3%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -88%
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 NL Central title Jun 18 $36 −$2 -7%
Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02? Jun 18 $2 $0 -4%
Will Loyiso Masuku be the next mayor of Johannesburg? Jun 17 $40 −$1 -3%
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 17 $26 −$2 -9%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 17 $49 −$9 -19%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 17 $16 −$2 -14%
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 17 $42 $0 -1%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 17 $26 −$1 -5%
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 17 $16 −$2 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $112 −$40 -36%
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 16 $28 −$2 -7%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 16 $48 −$1 -3%
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $64 −$32 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 1h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 49¢ $98 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 32¢ $64 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 32¢ $64 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $27 2h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 60¢ $121 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 61¢ $121 2h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $129 3h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $130 3h
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ? SELL Yes 50¢ $24 4h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $35 4h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $35 4h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? BUY No 69¢ $34 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 64¢ $32 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 5h
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? SELL No 37¢ $1 6h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 6h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 6h
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? SELL No 37¢ $10 7h
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? BUY No 36¢ $1 7h
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? SELL No 37¢ $1 7h
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? BUY No 36¢ $11 7h
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? BUY No 36¢ $1 7h
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ? BUY Yes 76¢ $38 8h
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $21 13h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by les SELL Yes 10¢ $5 20h
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $18 20h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? SELL Yes 41¢ $20 20h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.59 · official $178.59 (match) · 667 history records