Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:28:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53f8…d083 crypto 1134 markets active 1d ago coverage 381d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$697 (-8%) realized −$697 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%557W / 577L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$359
14 days−$323
30 days−$380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,108
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -15.9% -23.9% 49% 49% -38.5%
≤30d 335 -9.8% -18.4% 56% 47% -20.3%
≤90d 1134 -17.6% -25.5% 49% 40% -21.5%
all 1134 -17.6% -25.5% 49% 40% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 40% -21.5%
10% -32.6% 32% -29.0%
15% -39.1% 24% -35.9%
20% -45.1% 15% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

381d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$697
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses557 / 577
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1134 / 1134
History coverage381d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1134 Trades
no open positions (413 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$12 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$14 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$13 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $92 −$89 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$7 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$7 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $22 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$20 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $64 −$28 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $81 −$19 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $68 +$13 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $49 +$19 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $63 +$15 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $9 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $9 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $7 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $13 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $9 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $7 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $6 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $7 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $16 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $15 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $9 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $7 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $13 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2753 history records