Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53f8…7473 sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$336 (-33%) realized −$269 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$468
sports 25% −$312
crypto 10% +$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +43.4% +29.8% 39% 33% -45.5%
≤30d 18 +43.4% +29.8% 39% 33% -45.5%
≤90d 18 +43.4% +29.8% 39% 33% -45.5%
all 18 +43.4% +29.8% 39% 33% -45.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.8% 33% -45.5%
10% +17.4% 33% -50.7%
15% +6.0% 28% -55.5%
20% -4.4% 28% -59.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +129% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$87 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$269
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage2d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$3 +30%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $50 −$98 -198%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $49 −$98 -199%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $39 +$73 +187%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 −$196 -196%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$31 +320%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$17 +177%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$64 +655%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 15 $50 +$208 +414%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $230 −$230 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $65 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $49 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 96¢ $10 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $10 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $48 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $10 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $10 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $10 3h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $41 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $27 4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $10 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $112 7h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 7h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $49 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 17¢ $10 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $19 9h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 17¢ $10 9h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 11h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 19¢ $50 28h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $150 29h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 81¢ $49 29h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $50 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.13 (match) · 56 history records