Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:25:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
53 0x53f6…f327 crypto 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%45W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$11
crypto 7% +$1
politics 3% $0
other 2% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 58 +0.2% -9.4% 78% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses45 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage534d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? May 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in March? Apr 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in January? Feb 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will BNB reach $1200 in January? Feb 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in December? Jan 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in December? Jan 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in December? Jan 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? Nov 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? Nov 04 $29 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Oct 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? Oct 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? Aug 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? Jun 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 21 $9 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 04 $7 $0 +1%
Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in th Apr 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will the People's party win the second most seats in the next Canadian Apr 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Green Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Apr 11 $38 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $3 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $2,800.00 again by March 31? Apr 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Apr 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win La Liga? Mar 22 $5,437 −$11 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.35-1.39ºC in February 20 Mar 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.25 by February 28 2025? Mar 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 08 $18 $0 +2%
Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? Feb 22 $9 $0 +1%
Will Google have the top AI model on January 31? Feb 22 $17 $0 +1%
Aston Villa wins the Premier League? Feb 21 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $46 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 30d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? BUY No 100¢ $36 31d
Will Solana reach $130 in April? BUY No 100¢ $15 62d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? BUY No 100¢ $29 63d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $4 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $6 91d
Will BNB reach $900 in March? BUY No 100¢ $40 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $3 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 121d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $33 123d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in January? BUY No 99¢ $4 151d
Will BNB reach $1200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $5 152d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $40 152d
Will Solana reach $220 in December? BUY No 100¢ $4 181d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in December? BUY No 100¢ $15 183d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in December? BUY No 100¢ $29 183d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $27 212d
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? BUY No 100¢ $6 241d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $9 241d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? BUY No 99¢ $29 243d
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? BUY No 100¢ $6 272d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $12 273d
Will Solana reach $350 in September? BUY No 100¢ $26 273d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $29 302d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? BUY No 100¢ $10 335d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 99¢ $12 335d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $26 335d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $10 364d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? BUY No 100¢ $4 396d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.78 · official $45.78 (match) · 118 history records