Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:09:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
53 0x53ef…c811 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-19%) realized −$43 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$46
sports 8% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -5.5% -14.5% 43% 43% -30.6%
≤30d 7 -5.5% -14.5% 43% 43% -30.6%
≤90d 7 -5.5% -14.5% 43% 43% -30.6%
all 7 -5.5% -14.5% 43% 43% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 43% -30.6%
10% -22.7% 43% -37.3%
15% -30.1% 29% -43.3%
20% -37.0% 29% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$19 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$43
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage3d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $55 +$13 +24%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $13 −$5 -38%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $19 +$12 +62%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $57 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $55 3h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $22 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $19 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.96 · official $66.66 (match) · 16 history records