Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:23:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
53 0x53ed…6cfe other 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$97 (-36%) realized −$97 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%9W / 16L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$242
7 days+$242
14 days+$140
30 days+$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$140
sports 18% +$3
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +164.3% +139.2% 86% 86% +158.1%
≤30d 25 +3.6% -6.3% 36% 32% +39.9%
≤90d 25 +3.6% -6.3% 36% 32% +39.9%
all 25 +3.6% -6.3% 36% 32% +39.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 32% +39.9%
10% -15.3% 32% +26.6%
15% -23.4% 28% +14.3%
20% -31.0% 24% +3.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late +61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$8 · ×3.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses9 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage16d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 29 $11 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $21 +$92 +446%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $21 +$15 +72%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $27 +$43 +157%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $21 +$19 +93%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 29 $21 +$92 +443%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 29 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +246%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil $1 22m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 86¢ $113 26m
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 51¢ $36 51m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 39¢ $40 1h
Japan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 80¢ $112 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $17 2h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Japan 74¢ $1 2h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 13d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $51 14d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 14d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under $1 15d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 15d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 37¢ $10 15d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 15d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 81¢ $1 15d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $20 15d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 15d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 15d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 15d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 15d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.98 · official $70.98 (match) · 52 history records