Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:42:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
53 0x53ec…df91 sports 210 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$270,088 (+90%) realized +$268,897 · open +$1,191
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%80W / 77L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$1,435per market
Trades / day46.6pace
Fees−$3,321est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$28,894now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 65d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$78,807
other 28% +$22,373
weather 1% +$1,763
world 0% −$221
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+48.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +206.3% +177.1% 47% 47% -8.0%
≤30d 65 +120.8% +99.7% 54% 51% +33.8%
≤90d 157 +64.0% +48.4% 51% 47% +23.1%
all 157 +64.0% +48.4% 51% 47% +23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +48.4% 47% +23.1%
10% +34.2% 43% +11.3%
15% ← realistic here +21.2% 37% +0.5%
20% +9.3% 32% -9.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +64% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$1,300) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late +102% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,009 vs −$769 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.71 per $1 lost it wins $2.71
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$28,894
Realized+$268,897
Unrealized+$1,191
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses80 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$3,321
Open positions69
Markets (closed)157 / 210
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$1,435
Trades / day46.6
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 69 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5,654 $5,831 +$177 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $3,360 $3,690 +$330 (+10%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,008 $2,259 +$251 (+12%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 68¢ $1,878 $2,076 +$198 (+11%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 55¢ 57¢ $1,351 $1,403 +$52 (+4%)
Will the Philadelphia Phillies clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? Yes 57¢ 74¢ $1,031 $1,344 +$314 (+30%)
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $1,021 $1,330 +$309 (+30%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 24¢ $1,513 $1,235 −$277 (-18%)
Will San Francisco Giants win the 2026 NL West title? No 95¢ 100¢ $1,130 $1,189 +$59 (+5%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 92¢ $847 $1,169 +$322 (+38%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 62¢ 69¢ $826 $920 +$94 (+11%)
Will the Washington Nationals clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? No 84¢ 86¢ $684 $696 +$12 (+2%)
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? No 54¢ 66¢ $537 $655 +$119 (+22%)
Will the Portland Fire make the 2026 WNBA Playoffs? No 77¢ 81¢ $471 $500 +$29 (+6%)
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $338 $435 +$97 (+29%)
Will the St. Louis Cardinals clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? No 71¢ 66¢ $325 $304 −$21 (-7%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win more than 99.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? O 99.5 55¢ 67¢ $243 $297 +$53 (+22%)
Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $175 $288 +$113 (+64%)
Will the Chicago Cubs clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? Yes 64¢ 54¢ $331 $278 −$54 (-16%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $248 $263 +$15 (+6%)
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? No 57¢ 67¢ $203 $238 +$36 (+18%)
Will Marta Kostyuk be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 93¢ 98¢ $195 $205 +$11 (+5%)
Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals? No 94¢ 93¢ $206 $204 −$3 (-1%)
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $159 $196 +$37 (+23%)
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $84 $131 +$47 (+56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $999 −$999 -100%
Will Taylor Hall win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $3,936 −$3,936 -100%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $2,551 +$9,601 +376%
Will Jordan Staal win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $2 +$231 +12801%
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $757 +$1,576 +208%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $12 +$7 +62%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $657 −$657 -100%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $925 −$925 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,370 −$1,370 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $6,489 −$6,489 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,780 +$1,663 +93%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $151 +$98 +65%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 13 $46 −$22 -48%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 13 $208 +$208 +100%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $123 +$1,778 +1450%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 11 $1,239 −$1,239 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $59 +$811 +1375%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 08 $207 +$249 +120%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 08 $11 +$19 +172%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Jun 05 $209 +$557 +266%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? Jun 03 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $279 −$279 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $3,200 +$4,800 +150%
Will Naomi Osaka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 01 $14,718 +$11,806 +80%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jalen Williams win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Victoria Mboko win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 31 $162 −$162 -100%
Will Alex Caruso win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $144 −$144 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $1,674 +$8,381 +501%
Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $309 +$343 +111%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MV May 31 $2,776 +$2,703 +97%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $3,941 +$5,305 +135%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 31 $5,494 +$3,966 +72%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? May 30 $5,128 +$2,198 +43%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $2,024 +$207 +10%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? May 30 $3,734 +$1,763 +47%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $13,423 +$724 +5%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $83 +$71 +85%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 29 $1,177 +$3,019 +256%
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 28 $143 −$143 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 27 $11,255 −$11,229 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference? May 27 $8 +$28 +362%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nico O'Reilly win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 6¢ $6 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,842 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $91 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $40 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $234 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 5h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,134 5h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,894.20 · official $28,895.52 (match) · 3500 history records