Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:33:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53e9…5ef8 sports 560 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$513 (-1%) realized −$799 · open +$286
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%253W / 297L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day83.4pace
Fees−$1,736est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$2,176
world 0% −$178
politics 0% +$31
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -8.9% -17.6% 43% 42% -27.9%
≤30d 512 +0.3% -9.3% 44% 42% -10.5%
≤90d 550 +4.3% -5.7% 46% 44% -7.8%
all 550 +4.3% -5.7% 46% 44% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 44% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -14.7% 40% -16.6%
15% -22.9% 36% -24.6%
20% -30.5% 33% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$144 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$1,379
Realized−$799
Unrealized+$286
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses253 / 297
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$1,736
Open positions10
Markets (closed)550 / 560
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$161
Trades / day83.4
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 550 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 43¢ 100¢ $215 $500 +$285 (+132%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner T1 Academy 25¢ 100¢ $125 $500 +$375 (+300%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 33¢ $202 $198 −$4 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $114 $149 +$35 (+31%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 87¢ 29¢ $44 $14 −$29 (-67%)
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 86¢ 12¢ $86 $12 −$74 (-87%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 88¢ 12¢ $44 $6 −$38 (-86%)
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 69¢ 6¢ $14 $1 −$13 (-91%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 28¢ 0¢ $213 $0 −$213 (-100%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 74¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $125 −$125 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $531 −$531 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $238 −$235 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $229 +$271 +119%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $69 −$69 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $370 −$115 -31%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $417 −$417 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $231 +$119 +52%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $159 +$191 +120%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $142 +$128 +90%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $165 +$85 +52%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 18 $88 −$88 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $181 −$181 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $165 −$165 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $268 −$268 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 18 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $315 −$315 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 18 $340 −$340 -100%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $40 +$10 +25%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $274 +$176 +64%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $270 +$222 +82%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $186 +$194 +104%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $237 +$374 +158%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $137 +$112 +82%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $222 +$28 +13%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $198 −$198 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $192 −$192 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $157 −$157 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $250 −$250 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $85 −$85 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $129 +$171 +133%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $171 +$629 +368%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $20 +$7 +33%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $195 +$55 +28%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $224 +$776 +347%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $253 +$37 +14%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 +$9 +17%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $214 −$214 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 14 $89 −$89 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 14 $190 −$190 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 43¢ $215 54m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 22¢ $110 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 39¢ $98 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 33¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 33¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 33¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 33¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 38¢ $186 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $165 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 25¢ $125 2h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Carstensz 25¢ $122 2h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Carstensz 25¢ $1 2h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Carstensz 25¢ $1 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 20¢ $21 16h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 20¢ $15 16h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 20¢ $30 16h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 20¢ $25 16h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 20¢ $2 16h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 20¢ $23 16h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 20¢ $67 16h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 20¢ $2 16h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 20¢ $12 16h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 20¢ $4 16h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 2¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 2¢ $0 16h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 2¢ $9 16h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 2¢ $4 16h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 2¢ $0 16h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 2¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 25¢ $243 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,379.43 · official $1,379.44 (match) · 3500 history records