Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:29:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x53e5…6177
world · 104 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$15,347 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$129,524 · open −$75,904
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$258,024
Realized+$129,524
Unrealized−$75,904
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses42 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions26
Markets (closed)84 / 104
History coverage55d
Avg bet$18,056
Trades / day59.9
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 26 History 84 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,886
7 days+$1,590
14 days−$61,705
30 days−$65,321
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 33¢ $73,076 $70,354 −$2,722 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $43,431 $50,333 +$6,903 (+16%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 48¢ 56¢ $27,703 $31,905 +$4,202 (+15%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $19,281 $19,393 +$112 (+1%)
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $11,939 $16,519 +$4,581 (+38%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10,738 $12,125 +$1,387 (+13%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 70¢ 48¢ $13,756 $9,596 −$4,160 (-30%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 85¢ 81¢ $8,529 $8,177 −$352 (-4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 50¢ 56¢ $6,368 $7,229 +$861 (+14%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $51,406 $6,463 −$44,943 (-87%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $11,824 $5,611 −$6,212 (-53%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $5,392 $4,999 −$393 (-7%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $11,006 $4,688 −$6,318 (-57%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Yes 47¢ 10¢ $17,893 $3,791 −$14,102 (-79%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $3,402 $3,314 −$87 (-3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 6¢ $4,258 $1,171 −$3,087 (-72%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Yes 46¢ 34¢ $1,237 $903 −$335 (-27%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $1,079 $735 −$344 (-32%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 25¢ 1¢ $8,750 $490 −$8,260 (-94%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $103 $106 +$3 (+3%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $42 $61 +$19 (+46%)
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? Yes 26¢ 25¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-5%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $22 $17 −$5 (-22%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? No 9¢ 0¢ $2,666 $14 −$2,652 (-99%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 63¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 12 $533 −$533 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $105,377 −$1,353 -1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $2,142 +$466 +22%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,875 −$1,875 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $1,245 −$973 -78%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $9,375 +$2,364 +25%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $47,715 +$3,168 +7%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 05 $5,625 +$327 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $13,655 −$13,654 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $10,849 +$1,258 +12%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 02 $81 −$81 -100%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $284 −$284 -100%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? Jun 01 $892 −$856 -96%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? Jun 01 $3,785 −$3,785 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? Jun 01 $1,735 −$1,735 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $8,581 −$8,581 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? Jun 01 $4,787 −$4,787 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5,729 −$3,419 -60%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $4,670 −$4,670 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 01 $21,027 −$16,207 -77%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $130,501 −$52,440 -40%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $13,302 +$45,933 +345%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $90 +$14 +15%
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 29 $835 +$85 +10%
Major US official out by May 31? May 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 26 $236 −$236 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 26 $1,252 −$1,252 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $8,296 −$8,296 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 26 $13,374 −$13,359 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 26 $21,270 +$1,671 +8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $34,223 +$7,127 +21%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 25 $8,274 +$4,926 +60%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $12,198 +$6,070 +50%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 24 $6,162 +$5,178 +84%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $13,390 +$2,777 +21%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $261 +$840 +322%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 22, 2026? May 22 $46 +$5 +10%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 22 $7,207 +$40 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $24,563 +$1,374 +6%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $3,156 +$2,044 +65%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $3,120 +$2,080 +67%
Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the nex May 19 $7,077 +$4,619 +65%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in May 2026? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? May 19 $187 −$187 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 19 $6,555 −$6,555 -100%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 19 $24,291 −$23,588 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 19 $3,921 −$3,921 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 19 $2,862 −$203 -7%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 19 $494 −$494 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026? May 19 $47 +$5 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 83% +$35,618
politics 10% +$1,188
other 5% −$35,484
finance 1% +$198
crypto 1% +$45,931
economics 0% +$7,036
tech 0% −$335
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $3,040 13m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $40 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -29.6% -36.3% 50% 25% -8.7%
≤30d 53 -17.0% -24.9% 47% 34% -19.1%
≤90d 84 -16.5% -24.4% 50% 35% -2.4%
all 84 -16.5% -24.4% 50% 35% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover59.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.4% 35% -2.4%
10% -31.7% 23% -11.7%
15% ← realistic here -38.3% 21% -20.3%
20% -44.3% 15% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $258,024.19 · official $258,032.53 (match) · 3500 history records