trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? | No | 81¢ | 93¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+15%) |
| Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? | No | 55¢ | 59¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+7%) |
| Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 99¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+4%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 90¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+12%) |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | 54¢ | 52¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 20¢ | 6¢ | $3 | $1 | −$2 (-71%) |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 14¢ | $2 | $1 | −$1 (-44%) |
| Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-34%) |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? | Yes | 45¢ | 22¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-51%) |
| Will Patrick Mahomes start Week 1 for the Chiefs in 2026? | No | 88¢ | 43¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-51%) |
| Will Justin Fields start Week 1 for the Chiefs in 2026? | Yes | 79¢ | 32¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-60%) |
| Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-65%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? | May 08 | $1 | $0 | -43% |
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | Mar 31 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | Mar 22 | $2 | +$1 | +44% |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? | Mar 22 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US strikes Iraq by February 28? | Mar 22 | $2 | −$2 | -88% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Mar 17 | $1 | $0 | -27% |
| Will Golden - KPop Demon Hunters win Best Original Song at the 98th Ac | Mar 16 | $1 | $0 | +9% |
| Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 16 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Aca | Mar 16 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Sinners win Best Original Score at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 16 | $1 | $0 | +14% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | Mar 10 | $1 | −$1 | -63% |
| Will MrBeast say "Subscribe" during his next YouTube video? | Mar 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Callaita be played at the Super Bowl halftime show? | Mar 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | Mar 02 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? | Mar 02 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Trump out as President before GTA VI? | Feb 22 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will DtMF be played at the Super Bowl halftime show? | Feb 19 | $2 | $0 | +9% |
| Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68t | Feb 02 | $1 | +$1 | +62% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 100% | 0% | -6.8% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 100% | 0% | -6.8% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -25.3% | -32.4% | 55% | 18% | -31.5% |
| all | 19 | -24.7% | -31.9% | 47% | 16% | -23.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -31.9% | 16% | -23.9% |
| 10% | -38.4% | 11% | -31.2% |
| 15% | -44.3% | 11% | -37.8% |
| 20% | -49.8% | 5% | -43.9% |