Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:40:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53de…409a other 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,021 (-29%) realized −$3,008 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 29L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$1,174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,261
7 days−$3,227
14 days−$3,227
30 days−$3,227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$1,048
world 16% −$1,656
sports 11% −$442
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -48.6% -53.5% 20% 20% -41.5%
≤30d 35 -48.6% -53.5% 20% 20% -41.5%
≤90d 35 -48.6% -53.5% 20% 20% -41.5%
all 40 -29.2% -36.0% 28% 28% -40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.0% 28% -40.1%
10% -42.1% 28% -45.8%
15% -47.7% 25% -51.1%
20% -52.8% 25% -55.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -70% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$254 vs −$205 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$1,174
Realized−$3,008
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions17
Markets (closed)40 / 58
History coverage229d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $509 $505 −$4 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $147 $146 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $147 $145 −$2 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $147 $144 −$3 (-2%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $15 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,656 −$1,656 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,039 −$893 -86%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,488 −$1,488 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $30 +$26 +86%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$91 +303%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs TYLOO (BO1) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO3) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on October 30? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $313 −$166 -53%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $313 −$313 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $625 −$625 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,730 +$1,555 +90%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $31 +$72 +234%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $609 +$354 +58%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $299 +$327 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $179 +$282 +158%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) Nov 15 $10 +$32 +317%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 13 $57 +$15 +27%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $58 −$1 -2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 02 $20 +$18 +89%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Nov 01 $20 +$20 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $61 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $151 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $148 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $148 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $151 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $60 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 3h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 53¢ $30 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,194 12h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $298 12h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $121 13h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 67¢ $147 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $148 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $23 19h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $149 19h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $23 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $148 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,173.72 · official $1,173.91 (match) · 133 history records