Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
53 0x53dd…283c crypto 438 markets active 4h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$203 (+3%) realized +$203 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate56%244W / 194L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day41.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$62
14 days+$105
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$173
other 1% +$3
weather 1% −$44
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +5.2% -4.8% 59% 42% -5.3%
≤30d 324 -0.0% -9.6% 57% 44% -6.9%
≤90d 438 +2.4% -7.3% 56% 45% -7.9%
all 438 +2.4% -7.3% 56% 45% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 45% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 39% -16.7%
15% -24.3% 33% -24.8%
20% -31.7% 27% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$203
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses244 / 194
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)438 / 438
History coverage40d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 438 Trades
no open positions (182 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$11 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$13 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$9 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$21 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$5 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $44 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$6 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $33 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$12 +302%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$16 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $17 +$7 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1874 history records