trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -25.1% | -32.2% | 25% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -25.1% | -32.2% | 25% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +8.0% | -2.3% | 60% | 40% | -9.5% |
| all | 45 | -9.2% | -17.8% | 60% | 33% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.8% | 33% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -25.7% | 24% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -32.9% | 24% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -39.4% | 22% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $1,319 | $1,319 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $40 | $40 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 28 | $1,002 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 26 | $3,006 | −$6 | -0% |
| O/U 4.5 Rounds | Jun 26 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? | Jun 26 | $70 | $0 | +0% |
| Capitals vs. Blue Jackets | May 16 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m | May 16 | $61 | $0 | +0% |
| Clippers vs. Pelicans | Apr 14 | $10 | +$8 | +82% |
| Rangers vs. Blue Jackets | Apr 14 | $13 | +$6 | +47% |
| 76ers vs. Kings | Apr 14 | $12 | +$9 | +72% |
| Kraken vs. Predators | Apr 14 | $15 | +$12 | +79% |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 | Mar 19 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Nuggets vs. Bulls | Feb 08 | $10 | +$5 | +52% |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-07? | Feb 08 | $19 | +$3 | +16% |
| Hornets vs. Hawks | Feb 08 | $15 | +$13 | +85% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | Feb 07 | $48 | +$1 | +3% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Jan 18 | $40 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? | Dec 12 | $11 | +$1 | +10% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? | Dec 12 | $25 | +$1 | +2% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | Nov 05 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? | Nov 05 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Blue Jays vs. Dodgers | Oct 29 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Devils vs. Avalanche | Oct 29 | $15 | +$10 | +70% |
| Suns vs. Jazz | Oct 28 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Celtics vs. Pelicans | Oct 28 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Lakers | Oct 28 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Bruins vs. Senators | Oct 28 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Raptors vs. Spurs | Oct 28 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | Oct 28 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Grizzlies vs. Warriors | Oct 28 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Mavericks | Oct 28 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Commanders vs. Chiefs | Oct 28 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Blues vs. Penguins | Oct 28 | $2 | +$2 | +100% |
| Hawks vs. Bulls | Oct 28 | $2 | +$3 | +127% |
| Magic vs. 76ers | Oct 28 | $2 | +$4 | +203% |
| Mets vs. Tigers | Oct 27 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? | Oct 27 | $3 | $0 | +5% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Oct 27 | $5 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | Oct 27 | $6 | +$1 | +11% |
| Will Microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market ca | Oct 27 | $6 | +$1 | +14% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Oct 27 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Oct 27 | $10 | +$2 | +20% |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Sep 02 | $2,624 | $0 | +0% |
| Padres vs. Mariners | Sep 02 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? | Sep 02 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Braves vs. Marlins | Sep 02 | $6 | +$5 | +79% |