Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:04:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
53 0x53dc…031a world 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 428d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% +$10
other 27% +$1
world 19% $0
culture 12% +$1
crypto 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 38% 0% -9.5%
all 26 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -8.4%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.2%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.74 per $1 lost it wins $11.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

428d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage428d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $36 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $23 −$1 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $33 $0 +1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 13 $9 $0 -2%
Will another driver finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will María Galindo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 07 $91 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jun 06 $99 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 06 $108 +$1 +1%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $104 +$11 +10%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 21 $92 $0 -0%
Will "The Accountant 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or higher? Apr 21 $114 +$1 +1%
Will the Browns draft Shedeur Sanders? Apr 21 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $30 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $30 2h
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $14 26d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $4 26d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $15 26d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $33 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $19 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $13 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $29 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $36 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 73¢ $36 27d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $1 28d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 28d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 28d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $22 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $17 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 28d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $9 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $24 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $33 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $33 29d
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 91¢ $10 361d
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? SELL Yes 97¢ $9 375d
Will another driver finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? SELL No 100¢ $100 375d
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? BUY Yes 98¢ $9 379d
Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $9 379d
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 90¢ $10 380d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records