Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:17:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53d9…7d14 crypto 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$492 (-10%) realized −$449 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate24%17W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day45.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$635
14 days−$947
30 days−$946
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$966
world 1% −$2
politics 1% −$1
tech 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-42.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -73.9% -76.4% 8% 4% -46.1%
≤30d 70 -36.8% -42.8% 24% 19% -34.0%
≤90d 70 -36.8% -42.8% 24% 19% -34.0%
all 70 -36.8% -42.8% 24% 19% -34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.8% 19% -34.0%
10% ← realistic here -48.3% 16% -40.3%
15% -53.3% 13% -46.1%
20% -57.9% 13% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$32 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$449
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses17 / 53
Open positions8
Markets (closed)70 / 78
History coverage14d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day45.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $18 $23 +$4 (+22%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? No 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? No 17¢ 16¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? No 1¢ 0¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-69%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? No 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? No 1¢ 0¢ $18 $1 −$17 (-95%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? No 3¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $16 −$15 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $37 −$35 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $47 −$30 -64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $14 −$13 -94%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $200 −$94 -47%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $60 −$18 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $47 −$14 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $51 −$48 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $265 −$75 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $47 −$20 -42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $375 +$57 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $280 −$57 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $121 −$72 -59%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $75 −$35 -46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $14 −$13 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $171 −$16 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $105 −$69 -65%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 09 $21 −$5 -24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 09 $11 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $53 −$28 -54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $167 +$42 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $46 −$27 -59%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 08 $16 −$15 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? Jun 08 $48 +$39 +82%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 8? Jun 08 $43 −$3 -7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 07 $15 −$14 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $21 −$3 -16%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 9? Jun 07 $17 −$16 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $94 +$84 +88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $32 +$20 +63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $14 −$14 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $79 −$75 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $232 +$51 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $38 −$36 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $43 −$31 -73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $65 +$22 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $63 −$32 -52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $58 +$20 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $162 −$152 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $44 −$14 -31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $42 −$40 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $69 +$58 +85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $32 −$16 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $11 +$10 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 17¢ $8 4m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 24¢ $11 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 6m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 6m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 7m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 7m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 25¢ $54 14m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 56m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 56m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY No 2¢ $5 57m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 58m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 58m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 14¢ $47 59m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 3¢ $6 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 0¢ $5 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 3¢ $5 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY No 1¢ $11 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 3¢ $11 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 5¢ $14 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY No 5¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? SELL No 1¢ $13 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY No 5¢ $32 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY No 1¢ $32 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.61 · official $67.61 (match) · 637 history records