Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:57:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53d8…231a crypto 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$35 (-7%) realized −$25 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%38W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$34
14 days−$31
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$21
sports 21% −$26
other 5% +$25
world 4% −$9
finance 2% +$7
tech 2% −$3
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -21.8% -29.2% 45% 35% -27.4%
≤30d 48 -8.2% -16.9% 52% 46% -15.3%
≤90d 54 -15.6% -23.6% 48% 43% -18.2%
all 88 -2.2% -11.6% 43% 38% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 38% -12.8%
10% -20.0% 32% -21.2%
15% -27.7% 28% -28.8%
20% -34.8% 20% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses38 / 50
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)88 / 91
History coverage204d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-43%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 54¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$10 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -49%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 10 $0 $0 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$7 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 29 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 29 $2 +$3 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 26 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? May 26 $5 +$1 +18%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? May 26 $4 +$4 +100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? May 26 $13 +$7 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 21 $2 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 49¢ $1 11m
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.21 · official $22.21 (match) · 311 history records