Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:55:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x53d7…186d
other · 39 markets active 2h ago
7.0score
+$45 +76%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$46 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)31 / 39
History coverage270d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit54%
Chart Positions 8 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 52¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 68¢ 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Real Madrid (-1.5) Real Madrid 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US forces enter Iran by April 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Benfica win on 2025-09-16? Yes 84¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, May 10 $1 +$1 +66%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $1 +$1 +146%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 08 $1 $0 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $1 +$3 +317%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $1 +$10 +1011%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $1 +$44 +4427%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5) Mar 28 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-20? Mar 28 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-27? Jan 05 $1 $0 +25%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-27? Jan 05 $1 $0 +37%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-22? Jan 05 $1 +$1 +122%
Spread: Real Madrid (-1.5) Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 322: Kopylov vs. Rodrigues (Middleweight, Prelims) Nov 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iceland win on 2025-11-16? Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2025-11-16? Nov 17 $1 $0 +5%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $4 +$1 +35%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-26? Oct 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Tottenham Hotspur win on 2025-09-16? Sep 26 $1 $0 +43%
Will Benfica win on 2025-09-16? Sep 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 41% −$3
world 32% +$49
sports 25% −$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 15d
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, SELL Yes 43¢ $2 34d
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, BUY Yes 68¢ $1 35d
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, BUY Yes 25¢ $1 35d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 44d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 44d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 100¢ $5 46d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 46d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 46d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 46d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 14¢ $1 46d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 46d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 46d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 66d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 0¢ $5 66d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 66d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 72d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 72d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 72d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? BUY No 96¢ $1 77d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $1 77d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 77d
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5) BUY Fenerbahçe SK 65¢ $1 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+74.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 19 +163.4% +138.3% 58% 42% +58.0%
all 31 +93.0% +74.6% 58% 45% +28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +74.6% 45% +28.5%
10% +57.9% 42% +16.2%
15% +42.7% 35% +5.0%
20% +28.7% 29% -5.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.28 · official $7.28 (match) · 63 history records