Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:30:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53d6…c414 crypto 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$422 (-17%) realized −$422 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate59%57W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$18
14 days−$151
30 days−$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$371
crypto 30% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -12.1% -20.5% 75% 17% -14.9%
≤30d 78 -22.0% -29.5% 64% 19% -34.9%
≤90d 97 -25.6% -32.7% 59% 23% -26.4%
all 97 -25.6% -32.7% 59% 23% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 23% -26.4%
10% -39.1% 20% -33.5%
15% -45.0% 15% -39.9%
20% -50.4% 10% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$26 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$422
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses57 / 40
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)97 / 97
History coverage45d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 97 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$5 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$5 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$6 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 242 history records