Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:09:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

53 0x53d5…7909 politics 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 315d

RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$125 (-67%) realized −$103 · open −$22

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -96% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -96% what you keep after slip

Net edge-96%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$47per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 315d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-96.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	3	-95.9%	-96.3%	0%	0%	-91.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-96.3%	0%	-91.9%
10%	-96.6%	0%	-92.7%
15%	-97.0%	0%	-93.4%
20%	-97.3%	0%	-94.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -96% · $-wt -91% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$42 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

315d coverage

Net worth$2

Realized−$103

Unrealized−$22

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 3

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage315d

Avg bet$47

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	FURIA	23¢	2¢	$24	$2	−$22 (-92%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?	Dec 19	$18	−$18	-100%
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31?	Oct 17	$100	−$88	-88%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?	Aug 10	$19	−$19	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	SELL FURIA	11¢	$11	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY FURIA	23¢	$24	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY FURIA	23¢	$26	1h
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?	BUY No	19¢	$18	183d
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31?	SELL Yes	5¢	$12	247d
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31?	BUY Yes	40¢	$100	248d
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?	BUY No	15¢	$19	315d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.00 · official $2.00 (match) · 7 history records