Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53d3…60ee weather 794 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (152 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,020 (-37%) realized −$8,022 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate91%652W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day151.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2,468now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 55% −$28
other 17% −$1,027
world 17% +$22
sports 10% −$171
finance 0% $0
economics 0% −$21
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (152 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 632 -2.3% -11.6% 91% 5% -17.1%
≤30d 716 -2.2% -11.5% 91% 5% -16.0%
≤90d 716 -2.2% -11.5% 91% 5% -16.0%
all 716 -2.2% -11.5% 91% 5% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover151.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 5% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 2% -24.0%
15% -27.7% 1% -31.3%
20% -34.8% 1% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$23 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$2,468
Realized−$8,022
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses652 / 64
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions80
Markets (closed)716 / 794
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day151.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 80 History 716 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $667 $691 +$24 (+4%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $588 $600 +$12 (+2%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $302 $311 +$9 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Almeida/Escurra vs. Britez/Nunez: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Under 100¢ 50¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will the game go to extra innings?: Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the game go to extra innings?: San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 33¢ 57¢ $21 $38 +$16 (+76%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? No 63¢ 70¢ $33 $36 +$4 (+12%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 53¢ 69¢ $21 $28 +$6 (+30%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? No 100¢ 52¢ $50 $26 −$24 (-48%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Yes 18¢ 75¢ $6 $24 +$18 (+308%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 12¢ 96¢ $3 $24 +$21 (+700%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? No 89¢ 99¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 17? No 68¢ 100¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+47%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? No 84¢ 92¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+10%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? No 62¢ 72¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? No 74¢ 80¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$10 +237%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $16 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $16 +$2 +10%
Asuncion 2 (Doubles): Almeida/Escurra vs Britez/Nunez Jun 17 $78 $0 -0%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. T Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $6 $0 +5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $38 $0 +1%
Heredia vs. Ambrogi: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$1 -6%
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $18 −$14 -76%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? Jun 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +194%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +81%
Perricard vs. Moutet: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Perricard vs. Moutet: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Corentin Moutet: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Perricard vs. Moutet: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $13 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $31 −$17 -54%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 15? Jun 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 100°F or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? Jun 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,002 −$1,002 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 +$9 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 2m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 2m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 59¢ $11 2m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 59¢ $11 2m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 4m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 72¢ $11 10m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 10m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 84¢ $11 10m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 12m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $204 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 62¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will the game go to extra innings?: Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 2h
Will the game go to extra innings?: San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Car BUY No 100¢ $50 3h
Asuncion 2 (Doubles): Almeida/Escurra vs Britez/Nunez SELL Almeida/Escurra 100¢ $78 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 91¢ $16 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 96¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 0¢ $0 5h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. T BUY Yes 100¢ $50 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL No 72¢ $20 6h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY No 75¢ $21 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,467.61 · official $2,466.49 (match) · 3500 history records