Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:25:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53d3…a7ae sports 1523 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$29 (+0%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%1501W / 19L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$27
14 days−$53
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$97
other 29% −$52
finance 1% +$1
world 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +2.4% -7.3% 100% 8% -9.0%
≤30d 303 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 2% -9.6%
≤90d 1503 -0.0% -9.5% 99% 1% -9.5%
all 1520 -0.0% -9.5% 99% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 1% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$16 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1501 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1520 / 1523
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$87
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1520 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: PR (-2.5) vs 4ikibamboni (+2.5) 4ikibamboni 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 23 $143 $0 +0%
Nuno Mendes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $79 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1 $0 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1 $0 +21%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Map Handicap: RT (-1.5) vs ENERGYULTRA (+1.5) Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $2 $0 +11%
Map Handicap: KOL (-2.5) vs Walczaki (+2.5) Jun 22 $15 $0 +0%
Honor of Kings: UU Gamers vs WLT Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 22 $25 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? Jun 22 $250 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $147 +$2 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $107 +$2 +2%
Overwatch: Spacestation Gaming vs LuneX Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $59 +$1 +1%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $72 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $54 +$1 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $75 +$2 +2%
Game Handicap: Z10 (-1.5) vs 4ikibamboni (+1.5) Jun 21 $15 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $1 $0 +1%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: RT (-1.5) vs roamsfiest (+1.5) Jun 21 $15 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $8 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $96 +$2 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $186 +$2 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $134 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $1 $0 +6%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $120 +$1 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs summer bear (+1.5) Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: FORZE Esports (-3.5) vs Team Yandex (+3.5) Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: FORZE Esports (-2.5) vs Team Yandex (+2.5) Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: YNDX (-2.5) vs FORZE Esports (+2.5) Jun 19 $65 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: YNDX (-3.5) vs FORZE Esports (+3.5) Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Christian Pulisic: 2+ assists Jun 19 $93 $0 +0%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 19 $123 $0 +0%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Tiafoe vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Tiafoe vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) BUY Bellucci 100¢ $143 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 98¢ $1 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $1 1h
Nuno Mendes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $79 1h
Game Handicap: PR (-2.5) vs 4ikibamboni (+2.5) BUY 4ikibamboni 100¢ $20 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $1 7h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY No 14¢ $1 9h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1 9h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 10h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 12h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 13h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 21h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $1 23h
Map Handicap: RT (-1.5) vs ENERGYULTRA (+1.5) BUY ENERGYULTRA 100¢ $10 23h
Map Handicap: KOL (-2.5) vs Walczaki (+2.5) BUY Walczaki 100¢ $15 32h
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? BUY Under 100¢ $250 33h
Honor of Kings: UU Gamers vs WLT Esports Club - Game 3 Winner BUY UU Gamers 100¢ $25 33h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 35h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1 37h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner BUY Toronto KOI 100¢ $72 47h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $54 47h
Overwatch: Spacestation Gaming vs LuneX Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Spacestation Gaming 99¢ $59 47h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Game Handicap: Z10 (-1.5) vs 4ikibamboni (+1.5) BUY 4ikibamboni 100¢ $15 2d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 2d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) BUY Leviatán Esports 100¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.95 · official $21.95 (match) · 3500 history records