Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
53 0x53d0…2963 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+4%) realized +$21 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$16
world 38% +$90
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -35.2% -41.4% 44% 22% +12.9%
≤30d 9 -35.2% -41.4% 44% 22% +12.9%
≤90d 9 -35.2% -41.4% 44% 22% +12.9%
all 9 -35.2% -41.4% 44% 22% +12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.4% 22% +12.9%
10% ← realistic here -47.0% 22% +2.1%
15% -52.1% 22% -7.8%
20% -56.8% 22% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$5 · ×5.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.27 per $1 lost it wins $4.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 1¢ 0¢ $13 $4 −$9 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $171 +$2 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $113 +$99 +87%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$3 +57%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -69%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 41m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $173 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $171 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 2¢ $10 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 1¢ $3 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 92¢ $202 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 45¢ $95 17h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 88¢ $8 18h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 85¢ $8 18h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 92¢ $9 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 21h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 22h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 22h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 23h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 24h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 24h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.81 · official $3.81 (match) · 24 history records