Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:05:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
53 0x53cd…786f crypto 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$24 (+5%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate68%79W / 38L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$17
14 days−$19
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$39
other 2% +$57
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 +0.3% -9.2% 74% 42% -12.9%
≤30d 103 -1.7% -11.1% 72% 41% -13.7%
≤90d 112 -8.6% -17.3% 67% 38% -17.3%
all 117 +13.5% +2.7% 68% 39% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 39% -11.6%
10% -7.1% 30% -20.1%
15% -16.1% 18% -27.8%
20% -24.3% 10% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses79 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)117 / 117
History coverage140d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 117 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -17%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$3 -29%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$3 -47%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -50%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$2 -32%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +240%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -7%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +119%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $6 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 255 history records