Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:44:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53c8…4ac9 other 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$103 (-3%) realized −$80 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%36W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$60
crypto 38% −$197
sports 2% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -17.5% -25.3% 38% 38% -6.7%
≤30d 46 -12.5% -20.8% 57% 46% -12.2%
≤90d 76 -7.3% -16.1% 47% 41% -11.3%
all 92 -23.4% -30.7% 39% 34% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 34% -13.5%
10% -37.3% 29% -21.8%
15% -43.4% 25% -29.3%
20% -48.9% 17% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$24 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$80
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses36 / 56
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage139d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+9%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 60¢ 10¢ $30 $5 −$25 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $308 +$134 +44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $71 +$66 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $85 +$90 +105%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10PM ET May 21 $75 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12PM ET May 20 $61 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11AM ET May 20 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10AM ET May 20 $45 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9AM ET May 20 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 20 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 20 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 20 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 20 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 20 $77 −$50 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 20 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 20 $52 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 20 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 20 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 20 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 20 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 20 $102 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 20 $127 −$90 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 20 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9PM ET May 20 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 20 $5 +$10 +198%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $184 +$16 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $43 +$107 +246%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $97 −$95 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $50 +$72 +143%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $30 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $141 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $141 16h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 38h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $10 39h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $142 42h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $71 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $71 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $85 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $80 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $71 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $64 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.75 · official $22.75 (match) · 213 history records