Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:25:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53c5…0414 world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$292 (-2%) realized −$292 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate26%11W / 32L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$9
14 days+$6
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$16
other 33% +$28
sports 20% −$283
politics 7% $0
finance 1% −$53
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.6% -9.0% 44% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 22 -0.5% -9.9% 32% 5% -10.3%
≤90d 27 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 7% -10.1%
all 43 -0.3% -9.8% 26% 7% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 7% -11.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -20.2%
15% -26.3% 0% -27.9%
20% -33.6% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$21 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$292
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage181d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $113 $113 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $392 −$15 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $379 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $236 +$22 +9%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $140 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $140 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1,186 +$2 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $397 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $270 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $140 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $259 −$2 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $129 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $129 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $9 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $130 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $132 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $111 −$2 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $174 −$53 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $72 +$8 +12%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $1,121 −$11 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $100 +$5 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 13 $65 −$4 -7%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 12 $1,437 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 12 $14 +$2 +17%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-12-28? Dec 29 $201 +$41 +20%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2025-12-27? Dec 23 $101 $0 +0%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2025-12-27? Dec 23 $100 $0 +0%
Jaguars vs. Broncos Dec 23 $894 −$96 -11%
Patriots vs. Ravens Dec 23 $730 −$186 -26%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-12-20? Dec 21 $198 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $472 $0 +0%
Steelers vs. Lions Dec 20 $101 $0 -0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $92 −$1 -1%
Falcons vs. Cardinals Dec 18 $449 $0 +0%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-12-20? Dec 18 $97 $0 +0%
Packers vs. Bears Dec 18 $65 $0 +0%
Will Fulham FC win on 2025-12-22? Dec 17 $180 $0 +0%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 17 $180 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 17 $358 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $113 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 82¢ $112 12h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $126 17h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $139 19h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $139 21h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $126 46h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $126 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $62 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $65 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $126 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $15 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $121 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $126 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $139 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $140 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $25 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.24 · official $113.24 (match) · 225 history records