Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:42:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x53c4…740b
other · 54 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$10,723 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17,154 · open +$4,339
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$342,133
Realized−$17,154
Unrealized+$4,339
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses25 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions10
Markets (closed)44 / 54
History coverage214d
Avg bet$37,611
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 10 History 44 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$688
7 days−$688
14 days−$688
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No 45¢ 45¢ $110,521 $111,217 +$696 (+1%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No 59¢ 60¢ $84,999 $86,733 +$1,734 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $58,377 $59,047 +$670 (+1%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No 90¢ 94¢ $39,833 $41,495 +$1,662 (+4%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 81¢ 82¢ $23,921 $24,395 +$474 (+2%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No 77¢ 72¢ $18,033 $16,912 −$1,121 (-6%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? No 23¢ 26¢ $1,817 $2,049 +$232 (+13%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No 92¢ 94¢ $202 $208 +$5 (+3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $61 $48 −$13 (-21%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No 71¢ 72¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Lakers 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Jazz Jazz 28¢ 0¢ $128 $0 −$128 (-100%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6,983 $0 −$6,983 (-100%)
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 91¢ 0¢ $2,112 $0 −$2,112 (-100%)
SC Freiburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5 Over 97¢ 0¢ $2,055 $0 −$2,055 (-100%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 in May? No 43¢ 0¢ $2,150 $0 −$2,150 (-100%)
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? No 30¢ 0¢ $1,556 $0 −$1,556 (-100%)
76ers vs. Knicks 76ers 36¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Lakers Lakers 23¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? No 20¢ 0¢ $1,262 $0 −$1,262 (-100%)
Will the ECB announce no change at the December meeting? No 0¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks Mavericks 49¢ 0¢ $9,996 $0 −$9,996 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Cavaliers 88¢ 0¢ $880 $0 −$880 (-100%)
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? No 86¢ 0¢ $1,263 $0 −$1,263 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $21,369 −$688 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 29 $8,400 +$1,000 +12%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $508 +$492 +97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? May 21 $4,101 +$50 +1%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $880 −$880 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? May 16 $319 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $2,180 +$5 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $78 $0 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $27 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $241 +$11 +5%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 in May? May 12 $2,150 −$2,150 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 8? May 09 $591 −$591 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $100 −$63 -63%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 08 $189 +$27 +14%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $1,942 +$58 +3%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 07 $76 +$24 +32%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $2,464 +$36 +2%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 08 $4,700 +$300 +6%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 08 $4,477 +$553 +12%
SC Freiburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5 Feb 07 $2,055 −$2,055 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of January? Feb 02 $6,059 +$12 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January? Feb 02 $10,906 +$36 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of January? Feb 02 $20,120 +$20 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $381,513 +$598 +0%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 02 $7,785 +$315 +4%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 26 $6,984 −$6,983 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Dec 24 $32 +$68 +212%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Dec 22 $1,263 −$1,263 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 m Dec 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 20 $1,556 −$1,556 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 Dec 19 $15 $0 +0%
Lakers vs. Jazz Dec 18 $128 −$128 -100%
Will the ECB announce no change at the December meeting? Dec 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 14 $451,092 +$2,051 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 12 $9,765 +$1,459 +15%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 12 $686,459 +$4,112 +1%
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? Dec 08 $2,804 −$2,319 -83%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 03 $2,200 −$1,000 -46%
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks Nov 23 $9,996 −$9,996 -100%
Bucks vs. Hornets Nov 13 $250 +$508 +203%
Suns vs. Mavericks Nov 13 $1,159 +$911 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 54% −$1,829
crypto 22% +$2,057
other 21% −$1,189
tech 2% −$1,810
sports 1% −$11,107
finance 1% +$1,064
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY No 70¢ $14 2h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY No 70¢ $2,505 3h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $0 34h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $10 34h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $61 34h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $26 39h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 83¢ $6,488 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 83¢ $349 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 83¢ $83 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 83¢ $10 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 83¢ $1 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 83¢ $830 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 83¢ $213 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 83¢ $9,590 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 83¢ $332 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 83¢ $213 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 83¢ $2 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 83¢ $14 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 83¢ $92 42h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY No 58¢ $2,804 43h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? BUY No 40¢ $19,390 43h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? BUY No 41¢ $20,479 43h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY No 58¢ $28 47h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? BUY No 41¢ $21 47h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 89¢ $2 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 89¢ $929 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 89¢ $89 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 89¢ $87 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 89¢ $11 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 89¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.2% -12.4% 0% 0% -12.4%
≤30d 7 +1.1% -8.5% 71% 29% -9.6%
≤90d 20 -25.0% -32.1% 55% 20% -15.0%
all 44 -19.6% -27.3% 57% 23% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.3% 23% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -34.3% 14% -19.3%
15% -40.6% 11% -27.1%
20% -46.4% 9% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $342,132.72 · official $342,132.72 (match) · 928 history records