Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:53:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53c0…33a5 sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$38 · open +$35
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day59.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$430now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$71
other 36% +$101
weather 8% −$30
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -0.6% -10.0% 50% 50% -12.7%
≤30d 18 -0.6% -10.0% 50% 50% -12.7%
≤90d 18 -0.6% -10.0% 50% 50% -12.7%
all 18 -0.6% -10.0% 50% 50% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 50% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 50% -21.0%
15% -26.5% 44% -28.7%
20% -33.7% 33% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$46 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$430
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions6
Markets (closed)18 / 24
History coverage2d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day59.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 54¢ $96 $107 +$11 (+11%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Chicago Cubs 49¢ 67¢ $49 $67 +$18 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? Yes 55¢ 64¢ $55 $64 +$8 (+15%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $52 $50 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $39 −$26 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $14 −$12 -89%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Vendula Valdmannov Jun 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan Jun 23 $40 +$9 +23%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Katy Dunne Jun 23 $43 +$70 +164%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Jessika Ponchet Jun 23 $11 +$5 +43%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar Jun 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 23 $70 +$30 +43%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dalma Galfi vs Francisca Jorge Jun 23 $79 −$79 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Taylah Preston Jun 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Laura Pigossi vs Oceane Dodin Jun 23 $51 +$99 +193%
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 23 $99 −$99 -100%
Targu Mures: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Radu Mihai Papoe Jun 23 $82 +$67 +82%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $98 +$52 +54%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $60 +$40 +67%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 23 $19 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$9 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 55¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 55¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 55¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 24? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 24? SELL Yes $2 1h
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan SELL Benjamin Hassan 50¢ $49 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Katy Dunne SELL Aliaksandra Sasnovich 100¢ $113 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Katy Dunne BUY Aliaksandra Sasnovich 38¢ $39 14h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Katy Dunne BUY Aliaksandra Sasnovich 31¢ $2 14h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Katy Dunne BUY Aliaksandra Sasnovich 31¢ $2 14h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Jessika Ponchet BUY Polina Kudermetova 70¢ $8 14h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Jessika Ponchet BUY Polina Kudermetova 70¢ $4 14h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Vendula Valdmannov BUY Vendula Valdmannova 45¢ $45 14h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini SELL Lucrezia Stefanini 100¢ $100 15h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 30¢ $12 16h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Lucrezia Stefanini 70¢ $70 16h
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan BUY Benjamin Hassan 40¢ $40 16h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 60¢ $6 16h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 60¢ $2 16h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 60¢ $26 16h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 60¢ $3 16h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 60¢ $2 16h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 60¢ $15 16h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 60¢ $3 16h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 60¢ $9 16h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 60¢ $4 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $429.74 · official $429.75 (match) · 102 history records