Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:16:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x53bd…5d30
other · 83 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$15,059 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12,154 · open −$3,861
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$28,901
Realized−$12,154
Unrealized−$3,861
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses27 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Open positions40
Markets (closed)137 / 83
Avg bet$4,214
Trades / day68.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 40 History 137 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13,315
7 days−$9,886
14 days−$10,034
30 days−$12,154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 77¢ $10,000 $15,370 +$5,370 (+54%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 23¢ $10,000 $4,630 −$5,370 (-54%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 67¢ $149 $2,610 +$2,461 (+1654%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 26¢ $192 $1,275 +$1,083 (+563%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 7¢ 24¢ $359 $1,173 +$815 (+227%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 12¢ 26¢ $443 $968 +$525 (+119%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $192 $925 +$733 (+381%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 5¢ 14¢ $246 $663 +$417 (+170%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $198 $365 +$168 (+85%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $209 $327 +$118 (+57%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $234 $155 −$79 (-34%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $194 $134 −$60 (-31%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $184 $72 −$112 (-61%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $198 $62 −$136 (-69%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $201 $31 −$170 (-84%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $205 $26 −$178 (-87%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $194 $19 −$175 (-90%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $194 $14 −$180 (-93%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $192 $12 −$180 (-93%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $192 $8 −$185 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $185 $6 −$179 (-97%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $192 $2 −$190 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $192 $2 −$190 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $192 $2 −$190 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $154 −$154 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 65% +$2,545
politics 35% −$5,370
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $13 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $23 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $85 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $49 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $116 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $39 3h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $126 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $87 4h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 4h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-40.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -62.1% -65.7% 12% 9% -27.6%
≤30d 137 -33.7% -40.0% 20% 13% -14.4%
≤90d 137 -33.7% -40.0% 20% 13% -14.4%
all 137 -33.7% -40.0% 20% 13% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover68.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.0% 13% -14.4%
10% -45.8% 10% -22.6%
15% ← realistic here -51.0% 9% -30.1%
20% -55.8% 9% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,901.27 · official $28,866.45 (match) · 1597 history records