Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:45:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x53bc…be7c
weather · 1248 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$178 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$154 · open +$24
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$607
Realized+$154
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses980 / 234
Open positions34
Markets (closed)1214 / 1248
History coverage53d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day39.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 34 History 1214 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$107
14 days+$204
30 days+$459
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? No 77¢ 100¢ $18 $23 +$5 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? No 78¢ 100¢ $17 $22 +$5 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? No 71¢ 84¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? No 83¢ 94¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? No 64¢ 74¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? No 80¢ 87¢ $18 $19 +$2 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? No 67¢ 72¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? No 85¢ 92¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? No 83¢ 88¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? No 75¢ 78¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 84¢ 88¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? No 64¢ 68¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? No 92¢ 95¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? No 91¢ 94¢ $18 $18 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? No 91¢ 94¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? No 83¢ 85¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? No 89¢ 91¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? No 64¢ 68¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? No 83¢ 86¢ $18 $18 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? No 75¢ 75¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? No 85¢ 86¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? No 69¢ 69¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? No 65¢ 66¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? No 66¢ 68¢ $17 $17 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? No 86¢ 85¢ $18 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 +$5 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $18 +$5 +26%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $18 +$4 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 +$6 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $18 +$7 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $18 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $18 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $18 +$5 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $18 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $18 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 10 $18 −$18 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 10 $18 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $17 +$8 +47%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $18 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 9? Jun 10 $18 +$6 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $18 +$5 +28%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $17 +$10 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 09 $18 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 09 $17 +$9 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $18 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $18 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $18 +$5 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $18 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Jun 08 $4 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 08 $18 −$17 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 08 $18 −$18 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $18 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 08 $18 +$7 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $18 +$10 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $18 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 7? Jun 08 $18 +$4 +24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 08 $17 +$7 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $18 +$5 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8? Jun 07 $17 −$17 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 07 $18 +$4 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 07 $17 +$7 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 6? Jun 07 $16 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 07 $18 +$12 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 07 $15 +$7 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 07 $16 +$5 +30%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 07 $16 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or below on June 6? Jun 07 $18 +$11 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 07 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 6? Jun 07 $16 +$6 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $16 +$4 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 06 $17 −$17 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$178
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $17 42m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 69¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 65¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 83¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 70¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 67¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 83¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 75¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 75¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $18 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 75¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 75¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 75¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 75¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 75¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 80¢ $18 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 84¢ $18 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $13 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 80¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +11.5% +0.9% 87% 75% +0.2%
≤30d 518 +6.5% -3.7% 85% 71% -3.3%
≤90d 1214 +1.8% -7.9% 81% 66% -9.1%
all 1214 +1.8% -7.9% 81% 66% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover39.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 66% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 39% -17.8%
15% -24.7% 21% -25.7%
20% -32.1% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $607.48 · official $607.30 (match) · 3129 history records