Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:07:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
53 0x53bb…aee5 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$93 (-27%) realized −$100 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$105
sports 11% +$41
crypto 8% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.1% -13.3% 43% 43% -43.4%
≤30d 7 -4.1% -13.3% 43% 43% -43.4%
≤90d 7 -4.1% -13.3% 43% 43% -43.4%
all 7 -4.1% -13.3% 43% 43% -43.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 43% -43.4%
10% -21.6% 43% -48.8%
15% -29.1% 43% -53.8%
20% -36.1% 29% -58.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$40 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 81¢ $35 $42 +$7 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$9 -46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $82 −$80 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $26 +$17 +66%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 +$24 +210%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$21 +42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $36 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $43 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $31 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 52¢ $45 15h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 39¢ $11 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $82 26h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 37h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $26 39h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 40h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $51 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.95 · official $41.95 (match) · 15 history records